More on Sigmoid Curves

I'm wondering what causes the start of the Second Curve for individual careers. So I started to draw sigmoid curves for different scenarios of career transition. Here are a few examples. I haven't yet figured out how to quickly draw these curves electronically so I'll verbally describe:

• Laid-off, burned out white collar professional, in the same industry for most of career.  First sigmoid curve takes an abrupt plunge on the declining slope. Second Curve starts after a measurable gap from the First Curve. Motivation to start Second Curve:  Loss of opportunity on First Curve, disillusionment.

• Young star in law, burns out after a few years in a field of litigation that is misaligned with values.  First sigmoid curve is steep. Second Curve starts half way down the decline of the First Curve. Motivation to start Second Curve: Disillusionment, emotional pain.

• Analytical professional hits glass ceiling at small company. During time at company, volunteer work with training and facilitating groups provides a creative outlet. Professional leaves small company for full-time position with same non-profit associated with volunteer work. Second Curve starts when First Curve is still rising. First Curve ends just after passing the peak, intersecting with rising Second Curve.  Motivation to start Second Curve: Passion.

• Mid-career high-achieving professional prepares for Plan B in light of industry downsizing. Second Curve starts at a long plateau at the top of the First Curve. Second Curve develops slowly, slight rising slope.  Motivation to start Second Curve: Fear, hunger for something new.

Comments

[Manny]

I love this site. I was an award-winning composer in the advertising field. I felt more or less useless in my 40s as musical styles pretty much passed me by. So I learned programming and became a system-based trader. For me, the process of visualizing a numerical output turned out to be rather similar to visualizing a musical output. Also similar was the "learning curve". It was about 5 years from my first commercial to my first major award. It's been about 8 years and now I am up 20% in a down market. But it was a tough 8 years. Anyone with similar stories can contact me at my blog: Successbooks.blogspot.com

[Carol Ross]

Thanks, Manny. For some reason, I never saw your comment when it was originally posted and am just seeing it more than a year later! Love your own story of how you moved from one curve to another, and became a boundary crosser in the process. Your story validates the idea that our innate talents are transferable to vastly different disciplines.

I hope that your trading talents have continued to serve you in this down economy. I'm imagining between that and your study of Charlie Munger's insights, you've done much better than the average trader.